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Job Market Paper
"No Farm Workers, No Food? Evidence from Specialty Crop Production"
This study provides reduced-form estimates of the effects of shifts in the farm labor supply on hand-harvested fruit and vegetable production.
Using crop production and employment data from California, I estimate fixed-effects panel regressions linking farm employment (measured at the county-year level)
to crop production outcomes (measured at the crop-county-year level). Because I use variation in equilibrium employment, as opposed
to exogenous variation in the labor supply, I use an equilibrium displacement model to identify plausible sources of bias that may affect my empirical estimates.
This exercise reveals that my point estimates should be interpreted as upper bounds for the effects of interest. Empirically, these bounds
indicate that a one percent decrease in the farm labor supply (in terms of the number of workers) causes at most a 0.38% reduction in production
in the top 10 producing counties, which together produce 86% of the total value of hand-harvested crops in the state. Production effects are channeled
primarily through a reduction in harvested acreage, although there are some effects on yield.
Peer-Reviewed Publications
“Viewpoint: The Future of Work in Agri-Food," with Luc Christiaensen and J. Edward Taylor. Food Policy. (2020).
"Innovations for a Shrinking Agricultural Workforce," with Diane Charlton, J. Edward Taylor, and Stavros Vougioukas. Choices. 34(2). (2019).
"Can Wages Rise Quickly Enough to Keep Workers in the Fields?" with Diane Charlton, J. Edward Taylor, and Stavros Vougioukas.
Choices. 34(2). (2019).
Book Chapters
"The Short-Run Impacts of Immigration on Native Workers: A Sectoral Approach," with Pierre Mérel. In R. Sauer (Ed.), The World
Encyclopaedia of Migration. (forthcoming).
"Economic and Societal Aspects," with J. Edward Taylor. In S. G. Vougioukas and Q. Zhang (Eds.), Advanced Automation for Tree Fruit
Orchards and Vineyards. Springer Nature. (forthcoming).
Other Publications
"Revisiting Economic Assimilation of Mexican and Central American Immigrants in the United States," with Giovanni Peri. Cato Institute
Research Briefs in Economic Policy, No. 220. (2020).
"COVID-19 and Farm Workers: Challenges Facing California Agriculture," with Timothy Beatty, Alexandra HIll, and Philip Martin. ARE Update, 23(5). (2020).
"Recent Mexican and Central American Immigrants Have Performed Well in the Labor Market, but There is Room for Improvement." U.C. Davis
Global Migration Center: Immigration Fact. (2020).
"California Farmers Change Production Practices as the Farm Labor Supply Declines," with J. Edward Taylor. (2019). ARE Update, 22(6). (2019).
Working Papers
"Revisiting Economic Assimilation of Mexican and Central American Immigrants in the United States," with Giovanni Peri.
Other Work in Progress
"The Changing Nature of Agricultural Labor Markets," with Diane Charlton and J. Edward Taylor in C. Barrett and D. Just (Eds.), The Handbook of Agricultural Economics.
"Labor Law Enforcement in Agriculture: Data Raise New Questions About How to Improve and Target Efforts," with Daniel Costa and Philp Martin.
"Labor Law Enforcement on Farms in California: New Data Suggest Current Approaches are Failing to Improve Compliance," with Daniel Costa, Philip Martin, and Forest Peterson.
"Farmworkers and Non-farm Work: Evidence from the NAWS," with J. Edward Taylor.
"Immigration and Economic Performance Across the Fifty U.S. States from 1980-2015," with Tim Kane.
"No Farm Workers, No Food? Evidence from Specialty Crop Production"
This study provides reduced-form estimates of the effects of shifts in the farm labor supply on hand-harvested fruit and vegetable production.
Using crop production and employment data from California, I estimate fixed-effects panel regressions linking farm employment (measured at the county-year level)
to crop production outcomes (measured at the crop-county-year level). Because I use variation in equilibrium employment, as opposed
to exogenous variation in the labor supply, I use an equilibrium displacement model to identify plausible sources of bias that may affect my empirical estimates.
This exercise reveals that my point estimates should be interpreted as upper bounds for the effects of interest. Empirically, these bounds
indicate that a one percent decrease in the farm labor supply (in terms of the number of workers) causes at most a 0.38% reduction in production
in the top 10 producing counties, which together produce 86% of the total value of hand-harvested crops in the state. Production effects are channeled
primarily through a reduction in harvested acreage, although there are some effects on yield.
Peer-Reviewed Publications
“Viewpoint: The Future of Work in Agri-Food," with Luc Christiaensen and J. Edward Taylor. Food Policy. (2020).
"Innovations for a Shrinking Agricultural Workforce," with Diane Charlton, J. Edward Taylor, and Stavros Vougioukas. Choices. 34(2). (2019).
"Can Wages Rise Quickly Enough to Keep Workers in the Fields?" with Diane Charlton, J. Edward Taylor, and Stavros Vougioukas.
Choices. 34(2). (2019).
Book Chapters
"The Short-Run Impacts of Immigration on Native Workers: A Sectoral Approach," with Pierre Mérel. In R. Sauer (Ed.), The World
Encyclopaedia of Migration. (forthcoming).
"Economic and Societal Aspects," with J. Edward Taylor. In S. G. Vougioukas and Q. Zhang (Eds.), Advanced Automation for Tree Fruit
Orchards and Vineyards. Springer Nature. (forthcoming).
Other Publications
"Revisiting Economic Assimilation of Mexican and Central American Immigrants in the United States," with Giovanni Peri. Cato Institute
Research Briefs in Economic Policy, No. 220. (2020).
"COVID-19 and Farm Workers: Challenges Facing California Agriculture," with Timothy Beatty, Alexandra HIll, and Philip Martin. ARE Update, 23(5). (2020).
"Recent Mexican and Central American Immigrants Have Performed Well in the Labor Market, but There is Room for Improvement." U.C. Davis
Global Migration Center: Immigration Fact. (2020).
"California Farmers Change Production Practices as the Farm Labor Supply Declines," with J. Edward Taylor. (2019). ARE Update, 22(6). (2019).
Working Papers
"Revisiting Economic Assimilation of Mexican and Central American Immigrants in the United States," with Giovanni Peri.
Other Work in Progress
"The Changing Nature of Agricultural Labor Markets," with Diane Charlton and J. Edward Taylor in C. Barrett and D. Just (Eds.), The Handbook of Agricultural Economics.
"Labor Law Enforcement in Agriculture: Data Raise New Questions About How to Improve and Target Efforts," with Daniel Costa and Philp Martin.
"Labor Law Enforcement on Farms in California: New Data Suggest Current Approaches are Failing to Improve Compliance," with Daniel Costa, Philip Martin, and Forest Peterson.
"Farmworkers and Non-farm Work: Evidence from the NAWS," with J. Edward Taylor.
"Immigration and Economic Performance Across the Fifty U.S. States from 1980-2015," with Tim Kane.
UC Davis Migration Research Cluster Workshop, Davis, CA, 2017
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Agricultural and Applied Economics Association Annual Conference, Washington, D.C., 2018
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The Future of Work in Agriculture Conference, Washington, D.C., 2019
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All-California Labor Economics Conference, Santa Cruz, CA, 2019
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Top Photo: Knickerbocker Creek Trail - Cool, CA