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Responsible Research Certifications
Responsible Research Conduct
Conflicts of Interest
Foreign Influence Risk and Mitigation
Job Market Paper
"No Farm Workers, No Food? Evidence from Specialty Crop Production"
This study provides reduced-form estimates of the effects of shifts in the farm labor supply on hand-harvested fruit and vegetable production. Using crop production and employment data from California, I estimate fixed-effects panel regressions linking farm employment (measured at the county-year level) to crop production outcomes (measured at the crop-county-year level). Because I use variation in equilibrium employment, as opposed to exogenous variation in the labor supply, I use an equilibrium displacement model to identify plausible sources of bias that may affect my empirical estimates. This exercise reveals that my point estimates should be interpreted as upper bounds for the effects of interest. Empirically, these bounds indicate that a one percent decrease in the farm labor supply (in terms of the number of workers) causes at most a 0.38% reduction in production in the top 10 producing counties, which together produce 86% of the total value of hand-harvested crops in the state. Production effects are channeled primarily through a reduction in harvested acreage, although there are some effects on yield.
Peer-Reviewed Publications
“Viewpoint: The Future of Work in Agri-Food," with Luc Christiaensen and J. Edward Taylor. Food Policy. (2020).
"Innovations for a Shrinking Agricultural Workforce," with Diane Charlton, J. Edward Taylor, and Stavros Vougioukas. Choices. 34(2). (2019).
"Can Wages Rise Quickly Enough to Keep Workers in the Fields?" with Diane Charlton, J. Edward Taylor, and Stavros Vougioukas. Choices. 34(2). (2019).
Book Chapters
"The Short-Run Impacts of Immigration on Native Workers: A Sectoral Approach," with Pierre Mérel. In R. Sauer (Ed.), World Encyclopaedia of Global Migration. (forthcoming).
"Economic and Societal Aspects," with J. Edward Taylor. In S. G. Vougioukas and Q. Zhang (Eds.), Advanced Automation for Tree Fruit Orchards and Vineyards. Springer Nature. (forthcoming).
Other Publications
"Federal Labor Standards Enforcement in Agriculture: Data Reveal the Biggest Violators and Raise New Questions About How to Improve and Target Efforts to Protect Farmworkers," with Daniel Costa and Philp Martin. Economic Policy Institute Report.
"What is the Future of Work in Agri-Food?," with Luc Christiaensen and J. Edward Taylor. Brookings Institution.
"Revisiting Economic Assimilation of Mexican and Central American Immigrants in the United States," with Giovanni Peri. Cato Institute Research Briefs in Economic Policy, No. 220. (2020).
"COVID-19 and Farm Workers: Challenges Facing California Agriculture," with Timothy Beatty, Alexandra HIll, and Philip Martin. ARE Update, 23(5). (2020).
"Recent Mexican and Central American Immigrants Have Performed Well in the Labor Market, but There is Room for Improvement." U.C. Davis Global Migration Center: Immigration Fact. (2020).
"California Farmers Change Production Practices as the Farm Labor Supply Declines," with J. Edward Taylor. (2019). ARE Update, 22(6). (2019).
Working Papers
"Revisiting Economic Assimilation of Mexican and Central American Immigrants in the United States," with Giovanni Peri.
Other Work in Progress
"The Impact of Minimum Wage Shocks on Low-Skilled Workers in the United States: Evidence from the H-2A Visa Agricultural Guestworker Program," with Philip Martin, Timothy Richards, and Marcelo Castillo.
"The H-2A Foreign Worker Program in 2020," with Philip Martin and Marcelo Castillo.
"The Changing Nature of Agricultural Labor Markets," with Diane Charlton and J. Edward Taylor in C. Barrett and D. Just (Eds.), The Handbook of Agricultural Economics.
Responsible Research Conduct
Conflicts of Interest
Foreign Influence Risk and Mitigation
Job Market Paper
"No Farm Workers, No Food? Evidence from Specialty Crop Production"
This study provides reduced-form estimates of the effects of shifts in the farm labor supply on hand-harvested fruit and vegetable production. Using crop production and employment data from California, I estimate fixed-effects panel regressions linking farm employment (measured at the county-year level) to crop production outcomes (measured at the crop-county-year level). Because I use variation in equilibrium employment, as opposed to exogenous variation in the labor supply, I use an equilibrium displacement model to identify plausible sources of bias that may affect my empirical estimates. This exercise reveals that my point estimates should be interpreted as upper bounds for the effects of interest. Empirically, these bounds indicate that a one percent decrease in the farm labor supply (in terms of the number of workers) causes at most a 0.38% reduction in production in the top 10 producing counties, which together produce 86% of the total value of hand-harvested crops in the state. Production effects are channeled primarily through a reduction in harvested acreage, although there are some effects on yield.
Peer-Reviewed Publications
“Viewpoint: The Future of Work in Agri-Food," with Luc Christiaensen and J. Edward Taylor. Food Policy. (2020).
"Innovations for a Shrinking Agricultural Workforce," with Diane Charlton, J. Edward Taylor, and Stavros Vougioukas. Choices. 34(2). (2019).
"Can Wages Rise Quickly Enough to Keep Workers in the Fields?" with Diane Charlton, J. Edward Taylor, and Stavros Vougioukas. Choices. 34(2). (2019).
Book Chapters
"The Short-Run Impacts of Immigration on Native Workers: A Sectoral Approach," with Pierre Mérel. In R. Sauer (Ed.), World Encyclopaedia of Global Migration. (forthcoming).
"Economic and Societal Aspects," with J. Edward Taylor. In S. G. Vougioukas and Q. Zhang (Eds.), Advanced Automation for Tree Fruit Orchards and Vineyards. Springer Nature. (forthcoming).
Other Publications
"Federal Labor Standards Enforcement in Agriculture: Data Reveal the Biggest Violators and Raise New Questions About How to Improve and Target Efforts to Protect Farmworkers," with Daniel Costa and Philp Martin. Economic Policy Institute Report.
"What is the Future of Work in Agri-Food?," with Luc Christiaensen and J. Edward Taylor. Brookings Institution.
"Revisiting Economic Assimilation of Mexican and Central American Immigrants in the United States," with Giovanni Peri. Cato Institute Research Briefs in Economic Policy, No. 220. (2020).
"COVID-19 and Farm Workers: Challenges Facing California Agriculture," with Timothy Beatty, Alexandra HIll, and Philip Martin. ARE Update, 23(5). (2020).
"Recent Mexican and Central American Immigrants Have Performed Well in the Labor Market, but There is Room for Improvement." U.C. Davis Global Migration Center: Immigration Fact. (2020).
"California Farmers Change Production Practices as the Farm Labor Supply Declines," with J. Edward Taylor. (2019). ARE Update, 22(6). (2019).
Working Papers
"Revisiting Economic Assimilation of Mexican and Central American Immigrants in the United States," with Giovanni Peri.
Other Work in Progress
"The Impact of Minimum Wage Shocks on Low-Skilled Workers in the United States: Evidence from the H-2A Visa Agricultural Guestworker Program," with Philip Martin, Timothy Richards, and Marcelo Castillo.
"The H-2A Foreign Worker Program in 2020," with Philip Martin and Marcelo Castillo.
"The Changing Nature of Agricultural Labor Markets," with Diane Charlton and J. Edward Taylor in C. Barrett and D. Just (Eds.), The Handbook of Agricultural Economics.
UC Davis Migration Research Cluster Workshop, Davis, CA, 2017
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Agricultural and Applied Economics Association Annual Conference, Washington, D.C., 2018
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The Future of Work in Agriculture Conference, Washington, D.C., 2019
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All-California Labor Economics Conference, Santa Cruz, CA, 2019
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Top Photo: Knickerbocker Creek Trail - Cool, CA