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Job Market Paper
"Farm Labor Supply and Food Production," with Pierre Mérel.
This study provides econometric estimates of the effects of shifts in the farm labor supply on hand-harvested fruit and vegetable production. Using crop production and employment data from California counties, we estimate panel regressions linking farm employment to crop production outcomes. Because we exploit variation in equilibrium employment, as opposed to exogenous variation in the labor supply curve, we use an equilibrium displacement model to identify plausible sources of estimation bias; we argue that our regression estimates should be interpreted as upper bounds for the effect of interest. Our results indicate that a ten percent decrease in the farm labor supply (in terms of the number of workers) causes at most a 4.2% reduction in production in the top 10 producing counties. Production effects are channeled primarily through a reduction in harvested acreage, although we also uncover some effects on yield.
Peer-Reviewed Publications
"Economic Assimilation of Mexicans and Central Americans in the United States," with Giovanni Peri. IZA Journal of Development and Migration. (Forthcoming).
"Proposed Changes to the H-2A Program Would Affect Labor Costs in the United States and California," with Philip Martin. California Agriculture, 75(3-4). (2021).
“Viewpoint: The Future of Work in Agri-Food," with Luc Christiaensen and J. Edward Taylor. Food Policy. (2020).
"Innovations for a Shrinking Agricultural Workforce," with Diane Charlton, J. Edward Taylor, and Stavros Vougioukas. Choices. 34(2). (2019).
"Can Wages Rise Quickly Enough to Keep Workers in the Fields?" with Diane Charlton, J. Edward Taylor, and Stavros Vougioukas. Choices. 34(2). (2019).
Book Chapters
"Evolving Agricultural Labor Markets," with Diane Charlton and J. Edward Taylor in C. Barrett and D. Just (Eds.), The Handbook of Agricultural Economics. (2021).
"The Short-Run Impacts of Immigration on Native Workers: A Sectoral Approach," with Pierre Mérel. In R. Sauer (Ed.), World Scientific Encyclopedia of Global Migration. (Forthcoming).
"Economic and Societal Aspects," with J. Edward Taylor. In S. G. Vougioukas and Q. Zhang (Eds.), Advanced Automation for Tree Fruit Orchards and Vineyards. Springer Nature. (Forthcoming).
Outreach Publications
"Labor Standards Enforcement in California Agriculture," with Philip Martin, Daniel Costa, and Forest Peterson. Rural Migration News Blog No. 208. (2021).
"Federal Labor Standards Enforcement in Agriculture," with Daniel Costa and Philp Martin. Economic Policy Institute Report. (2020).
"What is the Future of Work in Agri-Food?," with Luc Christiaensen and J. Edward Taylor. Brookings Institution. (2020).
"Revisiting Economic Assimilation of Mexican and Central American Immigrants in the United States," with Giovanni Peri. Cato Institute Research Briefs in Economic Policy, No. 220. (2020).
"COVID-19 and Farm Workers: Challenges Facing California Agriculture," with Timothy Beatty, Alexandra HIll, and Philip Martin. ARE Update, 23(5). (2020).
"Recent Mexican and Central American Immigrants Have Performed Well in the Labor Market, but There is Room for Improvement." U.C. Davis Global Migration Center: Immigration Fact. (2020).
"California Farmers Change Production Practices as the Farm Labor Supply Declines," with J. Edward Taylor. (2019). ARE Update, 22(6). (2019).
Working Papers
"The H-2A Foreign Worker Program in 2020," with Philip Martin and Marcelo Castillo. USDA-ERS, Economic Information Bulletin. (Under Review).
"Spillover Effects of Minimum Wages in US Agriculture," with Timothy Richards, Marcelo Castillo, and Philip Martin. (Available Upon Request)
Other Work in Progress
"Chinese Trade Competition and Rural Mexican Migration," with Joaquin Mayorga.
Responsible Research Certifications
Responsible Research Conduct
Conflicts of Interest
Foreign Influence Risk and Mitigation
Job Market Paper
"Farm Labor Supply and Food Production," with Pierre Mérel.
This study provides econometric estimates of the effects of shifts in the farm labor supply on hand-harvested fruit and vegetable production. Using crop production and employment data from California counties, we estimate panel regressions linking farm employment to crop production outcomes. Because we exploit variation in equilibrium employment, as opposed to exogenous variation in the labor supply curve, we use an equilibrium displacement model to identify plausible sources of estimation bias; we argue that our regression estimates should be interpreted as upper bounds for the effect of interest. Our results indicate that a ten percent decrease in the farm labor supply (in terms of the number of workers) causes at most a 4.2% reduction in production in the top 10 producing counties. Production effects are channeled primarily through a reduction in harvested acreage, although we also uncover some effects on yield.
Peer-Reviewed Publications
"Economic Assimilation of Mexicans and Central Americans in the United States," with Giovanni Peri. IZA Journal of Development and Migration. (Forthcoming).
"Proposed Changes to the H-2A Program Would Affect Labor Costs in the United States and California," with Philip Martin. California Agriculture, 75(3-4). (2021).
“Viewpoint: The Future of Work in Agri-Food," with Luc Christiaensen and J. Edward Taylor. Food Policy. (2020).
"Innovations for a Shrinking Agricultural Workforce," with Diane Charlton, J. Edward Taylor, and Stavros Vougioukas. Choices. 34(2). (2019).
"Can Wages Rise Quickly Enough to Keep Workers in the Fields?" with Diane Charlton, J. Edward Taylor, and Stavros Vougioukas. Choices. 34(2). (2019).
Book Chapters
"Evolving Agricultural Labor Markets," with Diane Charlton and J. Edward Taylor in C. Barrett and D. Just (Eds.), The Handbook of Agricultural Economics. (2021).
"The Short-Run Impacts of Immigration on Native Workers: A Sectoral Approach," with Pierre Mérel. In R. Sauer (Ed.), World Scientific Encyclopedia of Global Migration. (Forthcoming).
"Economic and Societal Aspects," with J. Edward Taylor. In S. G. Vougioukas and Q. Zhang (Eds.), Advanced Automation for Tree Fruit Orchards and Vineyards. Springer Nature. (Forthcoming).
Outreach Publications
"Labor Standards Enforcement in California Agriculture," with Philip Martin, Daniel Costa, and Forest Peterson. Rural Migration News Blog No. 208. (2021).
"Federal Labor Standards Enforcement in Agriculture," with Daniel Costa and Philp Martin. Economic Policy Institute Report. (2020).
"What is the Future of Work in Agri-Food?," with Luc Christiaensen and J. Edward Taylor. Brookings Institution. (2020).
"Revisiting Economic Assimilation of Mexican and Central American Immigrants in the United States," with Giovanni Peri. Cato Institute Research Briefs in Economic Policy, No. 220. (2020).
"COVID-19 and Farm Workers: Challenges Facing California Agriculture," with Timothy Beatty, Alexandra HIll, and Philip Martin. ARE Update, 23(5). (2020).
"Recent Mexican and Central American Immigrants Have Performed Well in the Labor Market, but There is Room for Improvement." U.C. Davis Global Migration Center: Immigration Fact. (2020).
"California Farmers Change Production Practices as the Farm Labor Supply Declines," with J. Edward Taylor. (2019). ARE Update, 22(6). (2019).
Working Papers
"The H-2A Foreign Worker Program in 2020," with Philip Martin and Marcelo Castillo. USDA-ERS, Economic Information Bulletin. (Under Review).
"Spillover Effects of Minimum Wages in US Agriculture," with Timothy Richards, Marcelo Castillo, and Philip Martin. (Available Upon Request)
Other Work in Progress
"Chinese Trade Competition and Rural Mexican Migration," with Joaquin Mayorga.
Responsible Research Certifications
Responsible Research Conduct
Conflicts of Interest
Foreign Influence Risk and Mitigation
UC Davis Migration Research Cluster Workshop, Davis, CA, 2017
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Agricultural and Applied Economics Association Annual Conference, Washington, D.C., 2018
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The Future of Work in Agriculture Conference, Washington, D.C., 2019
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All-California Labor Economics Conference, Santa Cruz, CA, 2019
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